GDP: Up and up
It might be weak but the UK has experienced economic growth in the first three months of 2008.
Despite the economic slowdown and low consumer confidence the Office of National Statistics has reported that the UK economy grew by 0.4 per cent in the first three months.
The growth was reported in analysing the gross domestic product for the first quarter.
The growth is lower than what was expected by analysts, but GDP is still growing rather than contracting. Many expected the slowdown to be so steep that it would result in negative GDP in the first quarter.
The strength came from the service sector that grew by 0.6 per cent in the quarter. The biggest percentage decline was in mining and quarrying, which fell by 5.2 per cent.
There is a chance that the UK might just avoid a recession, and the lower growth might give the Bank of England the confidence to lower interest rates again next month to keep the balance sheet in the black.
The bank expects this slowdown to have a negative effect on inflation; it has yet to come to fruition with high food and energy prices maintaining pressure on prices.
Do we need a retraction in the economy before inflation starts to slide?
Maybe, but is it really worth the risk.
The smart money is on the Bank of England maintaining the base rate at its current levels, and wait to see if market weakness can reduce the inflation rate.
As we have seen in the last year or so, the market has more impact on inflation than any action by the Bank of England.
