After reaching record highs earlier this week of US$108 a barrel, analysts are wondering how high the oil price can go.

This uncertainty is compounded by the fact that OPEC has stated that it will not increase output because speculation is pressuring prices and the fundamentals haven’t changed.

Less than a decade ago the organisation was spouting that it would maintain oil around US$30 a barrel after coming off the lows in the early 90’s

We have seen the price triple that target over the past decade, and still they will not budge to increase output.

Could it be that the OPEC countries cannot increase output and they are already sailing hard into the wind?

Some analysts in the US have grave concerns about these figures, and even the International Energy Agency (IEA) has suggested higher prices were here to stay because of demand for oil from China and India.

Despite warnings from the IEA the OPEC president stated that output would not increase any time soon because the current record prices were artificially inflated.

Consumer confidence in Britain is on the wane according to a study by one of the county’s leading retail organisations.

The British Retail Consortium reported that retail sales were slowing. 

According to the report, sales roses by 1.5 per cent last month, this compares to a rise of 3.3 per cent in February 2006.

People were still shopping, but price was an increasingly important factor for most consumers.

“Shoppers are still very price-conscious and reluctant to splash out on major purchases, so discounting was still needed to tempt customers to buy,” the consortium reported.

Even with strong food sales the slowdown in consumer confidence should put downward pressure on inflation.

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has played a conservative hand lately.

It has maintaining interest rates to see how the fallout from the US affects the domestic economy.

But with consumer spending down and confidence falling, it should be enough for the MPC to consider dropping rates.

There is increasing instability however with increasing wage pressures and high energy prices rising costs.

For the homeowner it might be time to lock in an interest rate, or ensure that you have enough income to cover any interest rate increases.

Taxation reform is always a complicated issue for anyone trying to calculate the impact on their personal finances.

It is made even more difficult when the chancellor of HM Treasury decides to make a flood of changes in one day with the chance of more changes to follow.

Already there are 30 or so changes to Britain’s taxation system to be introduced next month, and this year’s Treasury budget is still to be delivered which could give taxpayers more surprises.

The chancellor has already come under fire from the financial sector about the changes to Capital Gains Tax (CGT).

So to minimize the impact the chancellor has decided to a “amend” the CGT reform to reduce the tax burden on entrepreneurs.

Now people have an allowance of £1 million, which is taxed at 10 per cent rather than the proposed flat tax rate of 18 per cent.

Isn’t the goal of most tax reform to simplify tax? I expect the chancellor will have a hard time selling any further reforms that may be dilivered in tomorrow’s budget.

Borrowers may be facing tougher times, but the outlook is definitely brightening for savers.

While mortgage providers are undoubtedly getting choosier about who they lend to (see below), savings providers are competing to pull in the cash – and to do that they need to offer better interest rates than their rivals.

But some just aren’t playing fair.

* Many offer short-term introductory bonuses to lure savers in and then slash their interest payments.

* Others impose complicated restrictions on deposits and withdrawals making it almost impossible to earn the promised rate.

* And others still offer so-called ‘guarantees’ that turn out to be not quite what they seem.

Rachel Thrussell, head of savings at Moneyfacts.co.uk, observes: “With competition hotting up, rates rising and new accounts being launched, it’s a perfect time to bag yourself a great savings deal.”

However, she warns: “But hand in hand with increased competition comes increased ‘creativity’.

“Some providers are attaching numerous terms and conditions to accounts to enable them to offer those very appealing interest rates.

“So it’s never been more important to look beyond the headline rate. If it looks too good to be true, then it probably is – unless you are willing to jump through a number of hoops.”

If you’re thinking about opening a new account, avoid these traps by looking for no-strings deals.

Several – including Bradford & Bingley’s Internet Saver, paying a market leading 6.4 per cent, Icesave Easy Access and AA Internet Access (both 6.3 per cent), Sainsbury’s Bank Internet Saver (6.25 per cent) and Yorkshire Building Society’s Internet Saver (6.2 per cent) – pay good rates without nasty surprises hidden in the small print.

It’s getting tougher to find a mortgage.

In the past six months, nearly one in three applicants has been rejected by lenders, who are tightening their loan criteria.

The combination of the US credit crisis, which has seen a record number of poorer mortgage holders default on their payments, and the stock market turmoil and housing market certainty on this side of the Atlantic is making lenders very nervous indeed.

As a result, according to today’s Daily Telegraph, an estimated 372,000 of the 1.2 million people applying for a mortgage between April and September were turned down.

This compares to an estimated 230,000 people – or one in five applicants – who suffered a similar fate in the six months to March.

More and more lenders are deciding whether to lend on the basis of what they think people can afford rather than just their earnings.

That means they’re looking very closely at prospective borrowers’ existing debt levels – and how they’re coping with the repayments.

But that doesn’t mean that if you’re finding it tough to get a mortgage you should grab anything you can get.

Do your best to get your finances in good order before you go looking.

And, if you want to get the best possible deal for your circumstances, it’s more important than ever to enlist the help of an independent expert.

The stock market turmoil is forcing up the interest rates at which banks borrow to fund mortgages.

And that means the rates they charge customers are on the increase too.

Earlier this week, Abbey announced its mortgages were about to get more expensive, and other lenders – including Halifax - look set to follow.

So it’s no surprise to see Woolwich, the mortgage arm of Barclays Bank, promoting a new ten-year fixed-rate deal.

It’s hoping nervous borrowers will flock to fix their rate at 5.59 per cent for the next decade.

Andy Gray, Woolwich’s head of mortgages, says: “With many borrowers coming off cheap fixed-rate deals this autumn, and many people in the market worried about volatility in interest rates, this product offers long-term security.”

But this type of security comes at a cost.

Although, in the current market, 5.59 per cent may appear attractive – especially when the Bank of England’s own base lending rate stands at 5.75 per cent – that could well change in a year or two.

Most experts agree that before too long interest rates will fall, and someone tied in for ten years to a rate that’s no longer competitive will be badly out of pocket.

Sign up for a product like this and there’s no way out though – unless you want to pay a six per cent early repayment penalty.

For someone borrowing £150,000, that would be £9,000 down the drain…

And for most people, that’s far too much to pay – even for long-term security.

…That’s not something I’m likely to say very often.

But Chancellor Alistair Darling deserves praise for his attack on the banks’ over-eager attitude to lending.

Between us, we Brits owe more than £1.3 trillion and record numbers are struggling to keep up with mortgage and other debt repayments.

In today’s Daily Telegraph, Mr Darling says the big banks need to get back to ‘good old-fashioned banking’.

And that means being far more cautious about who they lend to.

He makes it clear borrowers share some responsibility for their troubles, saying: “They need to ask themselves, ‘Can I repay this?’”

He adds: “Institutions have in some cases been prepared to lend to people without checking if they were ever going to repay it.

“It doesn’t do any good for anybody, particularly the person in debt but also the lender, to be getting into a situation where you have bad debts.”

Well said – if banks didn’t lend irresponsibly people wouldn’t be able to get into such a mess.

There’s been an interesting development in the battle over bank penalty charges.

At the end of July, the Financial Services Authority gave the banks permission to put all refund claims on hold pending the result of a High Court test case.

This won’t be known until next year, but if it goes as campaigners expect, the Office of Fair Trading will order a clampdown on these charges – just as it did with credit card charges (see The costly truth about credit card transfers, below).

Now, out of the blue, Lloyds TSB has announced it’s cutting its unauthorised overdraft charges.

It claims it’s merely responding to requests from customers.

More likely it’s bowing to the inevitable and wants to make some good publicity out of it.

What’s the betting that when its fellow lenders follow suit, Lloyds will be heard reminding anyone who’ll listen that it made the first move and they are only copying its generous action?

Credit card balance transfer fees are on the increase.

The average charge has risen by 0.5 per cent to 2.67 per cent in the past year, according to MoneyExpert.com.

Last September, the typical fee was 2.1 per cent, but the desire to recoup profits lost following the Office of Fair Trading’s order to cap penalty fees at £12 has prompted a slew of rises.

And around 90 cards now charge a flat transfer fee of 3 per cent.

That means someone shifting a £5,000 debt could pay £150 for the privilege.

You don’t have to fork out to move your debt to a cheaper card though.

True, you won’t find any lenders who don’t charge a fee offering 12 months interest-free on a transferred balance.

But you will find five and six-month deals – providers include Norwich and Peterborough Building Society, Northern Bank and Ulster Bank.

If you don’t think you can clear your balance that quickly, several others – including Sainsbury’s Bank, Northern Rock, Yorkshire Building Society and Mothercare – charge less than 6 per cent for the life of the transferred balance.

If you really put your mind to clearing your debt, you could find that works out cheaper than paying a transfer fee.

Mortgage rate and house price rises are keeping first-time buyers out of the market.

New figures from the Council of Mortgage Lenders show the value of lending to first-timers in July was down 4 per cent on a month before, at £4.4 billion.

And, at 32,400, the number of first-time buyer loans was an even more worrying 12 per cent lower than a year ago.

That’s not to say there aren’t ways for cash-strapped first-timers to get a toehold in the market.

Of course, some are riskier than others.

According to the CML, the average first-timer is borrowing 3.39 times their income.

Many lenders will now go as far as four-times income, and some will lend five or six.

But borrowing at that level makes buyers hostages to fortune.

Job loss, ill health, further rate rises or falling property prices could quickly transform what looked like a minor financial gamble into a catastrophe.

A significant proportion of first-timers are going for interest-only loans in the belief that this will keep their costs at an affordable level.

But this is an equally dangerous and, ultimately, costly course of action.

There are less risky ways to make buying affordable, though.

A loan or mortgage guarantee from parents, pooling resources with a friend or taking advantage of one of the Government’s low-cost HomeBuy schemes can all help turn the dream of property ownership into reality.